Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast
3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast
Product: 3-Day Forecast
- Issued: 2025 Nov 12 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.
Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 8.67 (NOAA Scale G4). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 12-Nov 14 2025 is 8.67 (NOAA Scale G4).
| Nov 12 | Nov 13 | Nov 14 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00-03UT | 8.67 (G4) | 6.67 (G3) | 4.67 (G1) |
| 03-06UT | 8.33 (G4) | 6.33 (G2) | 4.00 |
| 06-09UT | 7.00 (G3) | 6.00 (G2) | 3.33 |
| 09-12UT | 7.00 (G3) | 4.67 (G1) | 3.67 |
| 12-15UT | 6.00 (G2) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| 15-18UT | 5.67 (G2) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| 18-21UT | 7.67 (G4) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| 21-00UT | 6.00 (G2) | 4.67 (G1) | 3.33 |
Rationale: Up to G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storms are expected on 12 Nov due to CME influences. G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storms are likely on 13 Nov and G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 14 Nov due to CME effects.
Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds.
| Nov 12 | Nov 13 | Nov 14 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 or greater | 99% | 75% | 55% |
Rationale: S1-S2 (Minor to Moderate) or greater solar radiation storms are expected over 12-14 Nov.
Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
| Nov 12 | Nov 13 | Nov 14 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1-R2 | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| R3 or greater | 55% | 55% | 55% |
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected and R3 (Strong) radio blackouts are likely over 12-14 Nov.
Real Time Images of the Sun
SOHO EIT 304
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SOHO EIT 171
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SOHO EIT 195
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SOHO EIT 284
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Current Sunspots
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SDO latest Magnetogram
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The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.
Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind
Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). |
Real-Time Solar Wind
Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. |
Solar Cycle
Sun Spot Number Progression This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. |
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression. |
The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun.
Solar minimum occurred in December, 2019.
Solar maximum is expected to occur sometime in 2025.
Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES
Northern Hemi Auroral Map
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Southern Hemi Auroral Map
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Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.
VHF and HF Band Conditions
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Credits:
Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Data Analysis Center
SOHO (ESA & NASA).
Space Weather links:
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images
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